An election setback that stripped the NDP of official party status appears to be only the start of the party’s troubles. A significant number of previous voters have defected and declared in a recent poll that they will not return, signalling a bleak future for the once-competitive federal party.
An Angus Reid Institute poll released Monday highlighted that only 13 per cent of respondents would “definitely consider supporting” the NDP in the future. Conversely, 41 per cent said there is “no way” they’d consider supporting the NDP going forward.
There is a clear divide in optimism and pessimism among different age groups of past NDP voters.
While over six in ten past NDP voters aged 18-34 think the future of the NDP is bright under a new leader, the sense of optimism falls to 36 per cent for Canadians aged 55 and older. Among those aged 35–54, 31 per cent believe the NDP’s best days are behind it.
“The challenge for the party appears to be appealing to older voters, and especially older men, who are the most likely to completely rule out supporting the party in a future election,” reads the study.
The willingness to potentially support the NDP in the future also varied greatly based on who Canadians voted for in the 2025 election.
Less than 1 per cent of those who voted Conservative would “definitely” consider supporting the NDP in the future. This number rises to 18 per cent among Liberal voters.
Although, those who voted Conservative in the 2025 federal election had the lowest number of converts. For example, only 4 per cent of Conservative supporters in the 2025 election voted for the NDP in 2021, while 5 per cent did in 2019.
Comparatively, a quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2025 voted for the NDP in 2019, while 24 per cent did in 2021.
Even the Bloc Québécois had more previous NDP supporters than the Conservatives, as 14 per cent of those who supported the Bloc in 2025 voted NDP in 2019, while 13 per cent did in 2021.
However, many former NDP supporters who abandoned the party for the Liberals did so out of spite for the Conservatives.
“During the election campaign, half (51%) of past NDP voters who were considering voting Liberal said they were doing so because Mark Carney’s party represented ‘the best chance to stop the Conservatives from winning,’” reads the study.
Former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stepped down immediately after the disastrous election results. Interim leader Don Davies has shown that he might be taking the party in a different direction after voting in favour of an opposition motion, which resulted in a Liberal defeat.
He voted against the Liberals despite pleading with Prime Minister Mark Carney to grant the party official status, despite not meeting the threshold of 12 elected Members of Parliament after winning only seven ridings.
As for whether Davies stays on as leader permanently or the party finds someone else, that could change the level of support notably.
Almost half the respondents, 45 per cent, said they might or might not consider supporting the NDP in the future, depending on the new leader and party direction.
Among past NDP voters, 47 per cent said that the party’s future is bright, as long as it gets the right leader.
Meanwhile, 28 per cent of past NDP voters say the party’s best days are behind it, and 25 per cent are unsure.
As for Singh’s legacy, past NDP voters are split on his performance.
Over one in three, 36 per cent, said that compared to past NDP leaders, Singh had an average performance. Meanwhile, 31 per cent thought his performance was above average, and 29 per cent felt Singh’s performance was below average.
“The 2025 federal election represents the party’s worst result in its history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh defeated in his own riding,“ reads the study.
The party will now seek to rebuild under interim leader Don Davies as it prepares for a leadership race.