A new study from the University of Toronto finds that minorities in the Toronto area are increasingly supporting Conservative candidates at both the federal and provincial levels.
The study analyzed federal and Ontario election data from the past two decades, including results from the two most recent elections held this year.
It defines visible minorities using Statistics Canada’s definition: anyone who is non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour, excluding Indigenous peoples.
According to the research, minorities now make up more than half the population of the GTA and are shifting their political support toward Conservative candidates, especially in the region surrounding Toronto.
The study’s data shows that where minorities are the majority, support for Conservative candidates increased by 10 to more than 20 percentage points in the April federal election compared to the 2021 results.
This shift exceeds the Conservatives’ national gain of 7.6 percentage points. Many of these ridings were considered decisive in preventing the Liberals, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, from securing a majority government in the last election.
The study attributes the shift in part to long-term outreach efforts by Conservative parties, including the use of multilingual advertising, participation in cultural and religious events, and a higher number of visible minority candidates.
In the April federal election, the Conservative party ran more visible minority candidates than either the Liberals or the NDP, according to a separate analysis.
The study also examined attitudinal changes among second-generation Canadians. Interviews with 50 individuals in the GTA, primarily of South Asian and Chinese descent, suggest a trend of distancing from the voting patterns of their immigrant parents and a growing identification with Conservative values.The findings suggest that traditional assumptions about voting patterns among minorities may no longer hold and point to a growing challenge for the left leaning parties in future elections as those communities grow.