Despite speculation that Prime Minister Mark Carney is benefiting from a honeymoon period after the results of the recent federal election, a new poll shows that public opinion has barely changed since voting day.
The results of an exclusive poll provided by ONE Persuasion found that if an election were held today, Carney’s Liberals would garner 43 per cent of the vote, while the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre would win 39 per cent of the vote.
This marks a minor drop in support for both parties, with Carney’s Liberals winning 44 per cent of the vote in the 2025 election compared to the Poilievre Conservatives’ 41 per cent.
The poll found that the NDP would earn seven per cent of the vote, a minor bump from the six per cent the party earned under former leader Jagmeet Singh’s direction.
The Bloc Québécois was measured at six per cent nationally and 27 per cent in the province of Quebec, while the poll captured the Green Party’s support at three per cent.
Both the Conservatives and the Liberals took a hit in Ontario, each losing three per cent of their support. The NDP and Greens saw their support partially recover from their electoral lows just months prior.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives reduced their deficit to the Liberals from three per cent to one per cent, while the Liberals have grown their lead over the Conservatives and Bloc in Quebec.
Since the election’s conclusion, Carney visited the White House to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, hosted the G7, and passed the One Canadian Economy Act with support from the Conservatives.
Partner at ONE Persuasion, Hamish Marshall, told True North that the poll demonstrates a lack of change in public opinion since the recent federal election, despite what some legacy media figures have said.
“Despite the so-called ‘Carney honeymoon,’ while all of official Ottawa and the Laurentian elites are swooning, the electorate remains unchanged,” said Marshall.
“The people who liked him in the election still like him, and those who voted for other parties have not been convinced to change their minds.”
The survey was conducted online between June 20 and 24 using a nationally representative sample. The poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.