Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have secured a minority government, but many Canadians are wondering what comes next.
Because Carney and his cabinet, which mostly resembled a downsized version of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet, were sworn in on March 14, the Liberals are not required to swear in a new cabinet, though they are expected to do so.
According to the House of Commons sitting calendar, Parliament is set to resume on May 26 and will go on summer break, with its last day on June 20. However, Carney can request that the Speaker of the House recall parliament before the end of May if he chooses.
An unnamed “senior Liberal official” reportedly told the Globe and Mail that Carney is expected to name a new cabinet within two weeks of his election victory and recall Parliament soon after. The source also reportedly said Carney intends to keep his cabinet smaller than Trudeau’s and won’t expand it beyond 30 ministers.
If the sitting calendar is followed, Parliament will only sit for four weeks before taking a break, and it has been prorogued since January.
On the campaign trail, Conservative Leader Poilievre pledged that he would not give parliament a summer break until key policies were passed, though Carney didn’t promise the same.
Once Parliament resumes, however, Carney will deliver a throne speech setting out his Liberal government’s immediate plans and priorities.
Carney campaigned mostly to fix Canada’s economy and take on U.S. President Donald Trump. If Carney remains true to his campaign promises, his speech could be expected to outline his government’s planned approach to Trump, including efforts to remove interprovincial trade barriers and establish new global trade relationships.
Shortly after Parliament is recalled, the Liberals will release a budget, which, according to Carney’s campaign, will include continued deficit spending. If the parliamentary calendar is unchanged, Canadians can expect a budget announcement in late May or June.
One of the first orders of business will be appointing a new Speaker of the House. Traditionally it’s the party who forms government who is tasked with electing one of their own to fill the role.
Due to the Liberals having a minority government, they could look to other parties to become Speaker. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May signalled that she would be open to filling the role.
Conservatives will form the Official Opposition again, but this time with 24 more seats than before the election. Poilievre, however, lost his own Carleton riding seat. The riding had an extraordinary number of candidates running. The riding also changed geographically from the previous year.
During his election night speech, Poilievre said he would stay on as leader of the Conservative Party, which means he will either have to wait for a by-election or one of his 144 victorious candidates will have to step aside in their riding for Poilievre.
If a Conservative MP-elect were to step aside, a byelection would be called in that riding, which Poilievre would have to campaign in. The riding would likely be considered “safe” for the Conservatives to give up.
Party members giving up their seats for high-profile members of their party is not unheard of in Canadian politics. In Alberta, for example, Premier Danielle Smith won the Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election after United Conservative Party MLA Michaela Frey resigned, allowing Smith to take her seat in the legislature.
In the interim, since Poilievre pledged to remain on as Conservative Party leader, one of the party’s two deputy leaders, Melissa Lantsman and Tim Uppa, will have to take on Poilievre’s role in the House of Commons.
As the Liberals have only lowered the consumer carbon tax price to zero, Canadians can expect to see calls from the opposition to repeal the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act entirely when Parliament resumes.