Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming Speech from the Throne will likely offer Canadians a repackaging of tired Liberal priorities from the Trudeau era, punctuated by a few largely cosmetic new policy announcements.
A key headline will be a promised income tax cut for the middle class, set to take effect by Canada Day 2025. The move is likely to serve as the cornerstone of the government’s attempt to tackle affordability.
However, details on how the government intends to pay for this tax relief—amid mounting federal debt and new spending commitments—remain unclear.
The speech will also likely touch on the ongoing trade war with the U.S.—particularly measures to deal with the impact on the manufacturing and the auto sector—but recent policy decisions paint a more conciliatory picture from Carney towards President Donald Trump.
Despite pledging a hardline approach during the election, Carney quietly introduced six-month exemptions in April for many U.S. products affected by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. Analysts say these carve-outs effectively undo most of the tariffs, raising questions about the government’s willingness to stand firm in trade disputes.
While the controversial consumer carbon tax has been reduced to zero—only following years of backlash from working Canadians—the throne speech is expected to reaffirm the Liberals’ broader climate goals.
Carney has vowed the continuance of the federal carbon tax and Canadian Culture Minister Steven Guilbeault has also spoken out against the viability of pipelines.
The Liberals have indicated that they will continue with past policies introduced by Trudeau including net zero commitments and Carney himself has vowed not to repeal Bill C-69, also known as the “No More Pipelines Act.”
Housing is also expected to dominate the throne speech following Carney’s release of a cabinet “mandate letter” prioritizing affordability. But don’t expect pledges to make homes cheaper. In fact, Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has explicitly ruled out efforts to lower home prices, citing the need to “make sure the market is stable” and acknowledging the housing market as a “huge part of our economy.”
Instead, the government will likely lean heavily on promises to double residential construction to 500,000 homes annually, particularly by expanding modular and factory-built housing.
Finally, expect a nod to Canada’s renewed commitment to meet NATO’s 2% defence spending target. After years of falling short, Carney has indicated that the issue is a priority although whether that translates into real dollars and timelines remains to be seen.
The Liberals’ throne speech will be heavy on promises—tax relief, housing supply, green investments, and trade modernization—but short on guarantees or costing with a full federal budget only scheduled in the fall.
