The upcoming federal election reveals that Canadian voters are divided by two distinct motivations. Canadians who intend to vote Liberal seem to be motivated by fear of U.S. President Donald Trump, while Conservative voters are motivated by hope for an improved country compared to its state under years of Liberal rule.
A new Leger poll conducted between April 11 and 14 with a sample of 3,005 Canadians shows that six in 10 Liberal voters support the party because they are motivated primarily by fear of Trump and believe Liberal leader Mark Carney is best suited to protect Canada.
Conversely, 76 per cent of Conservative voters will allocate their vote towards the party because they hope for a better future in Canada to live, work, and raise a family, compared to the state of the country over the last five years.
Across all party lines, 51 per cent of Canadians are voting based on hope, while 39 per cent are voting out of fear for Trump. The remainder cited neither of these factors as primary influences.
All in all, the Liberals hold a five-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the poll.
Trump is affecting the vote choice of the majority of Canadians. Only 37 per cent of Canadians said he did not influence their vote choice.
Liberal voters were the most influenced by Trump, at 79 per cent. However, those who intend to vote for the PPC said that Trump was the most likely to not influence their voting intention at all, at 65 per cent, followed by Conservatives at 55 per cent.
The poll also asked respondents to justify why they believe their chosen leader is best suited to manage the U.S. relationship, including with Trump.
Respondents were asked to select the top two reasons, from a list, on why they thought either Carney or Poilievre would be best suited to deal with the U.S. and Trump.
Carney supporters cited his former experience as governor of Canada’s and England’s central banks and his calm and stable demeanour.
However, former U.K. prime minister Liz Truss previously called out Carney for his role as the governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020. She said he was a “World Economic Forum regular” and a “champion of net zero,” concluding that he “did a terrible job.”
Poilievre supporters said that the Conservative leader would be better at growing the economy and could effectively engage at Trump’s level.
The majority of poll respondents said they plan to watch the debates, either in English or French.
While 62 per cent of respondents said the debate will not impact their vote choice, 17 per cent said it could and 21 per cent were unsure.
However, when asked whether they might still change their minds between now and the federal election on April 28, 31 per cent of respondents said they could see their vote intent shift. Conservative voters were most likely to have their vote set in stone.