In the past year, Canada’s provinces have seen several dramatic elections that have changed political dynamics and leadership.
Electoral outcomes have differed, ranging from major blowout victories to tight nail biters. True North has recapped the results of the major provincial elections that took place in 2024.
The meteoric rise of the Conservative Party of BC
British Columbians witnessed an election that saw the collapse of BC’s Official Opposition and the historic rise of a minor party that hasn’t held seats on the legislature for decades. The BC election was also plagued by uncertain election results several days after election day which ended with the BC NDP under leader David Eby eking out a slim majority government.
In the run-up to the election, BC United —formerly the BC Liberals — ousted MLA John Rustad, who would join the long-dormant BC Conservatives, becoming the party’s leader.
Rustad would go on to attract support from British Columbians across the province, soaring up the opinion polls and cutting into the support of BC United. Rustad would also attract fellow BC United MLAs to cross the floor and join the Conservatives, including MLA Bruce Banman, MLA Lorne Doerkson, MLA Elenore Sturko, and MLA Teresa Wat.
Support for BC United continued to plunge until the party’s leader Kevin Falcon announced that BC United would drop out of the election race, holding a joint press conference with Rustad to endorse the BC Conservatives against the NDP.
In the lead up to election day, the BC Conservatives were neck in neck in the polls with the NDP, a tight race fought over affordability, the homelessness crisis, drug decriminalization, and housing.
Though election day was held on October 19th, the results of the election were unknown until a week later on October 28th when Lt. Governor Janet Austin asked the NDP’s Eby to form a government. The NDP won a bare majority of seats, winning 47 out of the legislature’s 93 seats, while the BC Conservatives won 44 seats and the BC Green party won 2.
Saskatchewan’s NDP threatens Scott Moe’s government
This past October, Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party won a majority government, beating the Saskatchewan NDP by a three seat margin, the lowest that they’ve won since the 2003 election.
The Saskatchewan Party secured 52.3% of the vote and 34 of the legislature’s 61 seats, while the NDP managed to capture 40.3% of the vote and 27 seats. The upstart Saskatchewan United party founded by former Saskatchewan Party MLA Nadine Wilson and supported by Sask Party MLAs Greg Brkich and Denis Allchurch failed to gain traction, winning only 3.9% of the vote.
Premier Moe led the Saskatchewan Party to their fifth straight majority government in an election fought over economic issues, education, and healthcare.
NDP leader Carla Beck helped her party gain traction among voters by proposing to cut the gas tax, cut the provincial sales tax on essential items, cracking down on crime, and improving the healthcare system.
In the lead up to the election, public opinion polls showed the Saskatchewan Party trailing the NDP heavily, though few polls were conducted during the electoral period.
Moe acknowledged that he had failed to earn the trust of the Saskatchewan electorate as his party has overwhelmingly done in the past and must do better on the key issues that matter to voters.
“When you look at the results tonight, many people voted for the Saskatchewan party in the past but chose not to in this election,” reflected Moe.
“We have lost your support, whether it be due to management of healthcare or education or the cost of living, pressures that we’re all feeling in this province and across this nation, all of us in government, and it starts with myself.”
Nova Scotia’s Progressive Conservatives win with strong mandate
Progressive Conservative Premier Tim Houston was elected with a strong mandate in Nova Scotia’s general election, winning a supermajority and the most seats in the province’s legislature since Confederation.
Houston called an early election while he benefited from public approval, having won a majority government in 2021 to the shock of pollsters and pundits alike.
This past November, the Progressive Conservatives captured 52.8% of the vote and 43 of the legislature’s 55 seats. The NDP became the Official Opposition by earning 22.17% of the vote and 9 seats.
The Nova Scotia Liberal Party, who historically has alternated with the PCs in governing the province, saw their support collapse to 22.69%, only managing to win 2 seats in the legislature. The Liberal leader Zach Churchill failed to win in his riding and announced that he would be stepping down as the party’s leader.
Independent candidate and former PC MLA Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin won the riding of Cumberland North, beating the PC’s Bill Dowe by over 20 points.
Houston entered the election as a fairly popular premier against a divided opposition to have failed to outmatch one another and appeal to Nova Scotians in the province’s rural ridings.
NDP oust Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick’s general election
New Brunswick’s Liberal party leader Susan Holt carried her party to a majority government against the Progressive Conservatives led by Premier Blaine Higgs in a campaign dominated by affordability, housing, and education concerns.
Holt’s ascension to the premiership made her the first female premier in New Brunswick’s history and marked a significant shift away from the conservative leadership of Higgs’ Tories.
The Liberals won 48.2% of the vote and 31 seats in a legislature of 49, with the PCs dropping down to 35.0% of the vote and 16 seats while the Green party won 13.8% of the vote and 2 seats.
In the riding of Quispamsis, Higgs lost his own seat to the Liberal candidate Aaron Kennedy by 2.4%.
The Liberals won the election in a campaign dominated by concerns over the province’s affordability, housing, and education. The party focused on lowering the cost of housing for renters and those looking to purchase a home, reforming the education system to boost the number of teachers, and implementing affordability measures.
On the other hand, the PCs flagship policy proposal was a promise to cut the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax by 2%.
Elections on the horizon of 2025
In 2025, Canada will enter a federal election, currently scheduled for October 20, 2025. Newfoundland and Labrador is set to hold a general election on October 14th, while the territories of Nunavut and Yukon will also hold elections.
In Ontario, it is reported that Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford is considering holding a snap election in 2025 as his party maintains a domineering position against the opposition.