Aside from Quebec, the NDP has pulled ahead of the Liberals in the rest of Canada for voting intentions among committed voters for the next federal election.
According to an Abacus Data poll conducted last week, the NDP have more support than the Liberal party in Canada when Quebec is excluded from its survey.
The poll asked 1,700 Canadians, statistically weighted to represent Canada’s demographics, who they would vote for if an election were held from Sept. 19 – 25.
Though no margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, a probability sample of this size has a margin of error of no greater than 2.38% 19 times out of 20.
The poll found that in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has a lead, with 37% of committed voters supporting the BQ. The Liberals trail behind with 28%, and the Conservatives are polling six points behind with 22%. According to the survey, the NDP has 10% support in Quebec.
But sentiments across the rest of Canada tell a different story.
Half of Canadians in the rest of the country said they would support the Conservatives in the next election. The NDP is beating the Liberals by three points, with 22% saying they will cast their vote with the New Democrats.
When counting all of Canada, the Conservatives are ahead by 22 points, taking 43% of the total vote share among committed voters. The Liberals are still ahead of the NDP in the federal survey, with 21% to the NDP’s 19%.
According to the survey, the BQ can expect 8% of the vote, the Greens were given 5% of Canada’s support, and 3% of Canadians said they would vote for the People’s Party of Canada.
The PPC is below about two points compared with the voting results from the last federal election in 2021, in which they received more votes than the Green Party despite not winning any seats.
When combining all the provinces except Quebec, the NDP are ahead of the Liberals, but the NDP are still behind the Liberals by 18 points in the Atlantic provinces and two points in Ontario,
The majority of Canadians are done with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Another statistically weighted survey conducted by Leger 360 asked 1,556 Canadians aged 18 and older, their thoughts on the current Prime Minister of Canada from Sept. 20 to 22. The survey found that 62% of Canadians believe he should resign, and 64% said they disapprove of Trudeau’s job as Prime Minister.
Comparatively, the margin of error for a probability sample of that size is no greater than 2.48% 19 times out of 20.
The poll found that Conservatives were “significantly” more likely to say Trudeau has done a poor job, with 93% of Conservatives disapproving of the Prime Minister. In comparison, 83% of Liberal voters said they approved of his performance. Over a quarter of Canadians said the same, with 28% saying he’s done well.
Liberal voters are still unsure who should replace Trudeau, however. Nearly half, 46% said they do not know who should replace the Liberal Party leader. 18% thought Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland should do so, and 13% said they think the former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney ought to take on the job.
The next federal election is slated to take place in October 2025, though the government is one non-confidence vote away from facing another election.