Almost half of Canadians want a federal election to be called after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ripped up the NDP-Liberal supply and confidence agreement. The poll also showed that those who plan to vote Conservative overwhelmingly want an election.
Singh ended his supply and confidence agreement with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sep. 4.
A Leger poll surveyed 1,521 Canadians between Sep. 6 and Sep. 8 to gather their opinions about the end of the NDP-Liberal agreement and the future of Canadian politics in the wake of Singh’s announcement.
The poll showed that 47% of Canadians want an election called now that the deal between Singh and Trudeau is over. The number of people who want this rises to 80% for Canadians who intend to vote Conservative. Conversely, only 16% of Liberals felt this way.
Canadians who plan to vote for Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada want an election immediately, even more so than Conservative voters, 83% and 80% respectively, but this represents a very small portion of respondents.
Of the 1,521 poll respondents, 1,279 were decided voters. Nearly half of them would vote for the Conservatives, 45%. In second place, by a considerable margin, were those who intend to vote for the Liberals, 25%. Following the Liberals were the NDP (15%), Bloc Québécois (8%), Green Party (2%), PPC (1%).
Singh has been non-committal about whether he would trigger an election or not. He said Canadians must choose between his NDP party and the Conservatives, not the Liberals, despite the NDP polling well beneath the Liberals.
“But let us be clear: this absolutely means an election is more likely. And, that election is going to be about an important choice: between the cuts of Pierre Poilievre, or New Democrats who want to build a better future for you,” said Singh.
The comments followed Poilievre asking if Singh would trigger an election at the earliest opportunity.
Poilievre said his choice would determine whether “Sellout Singh is serious or a stunt man.”
The Conservatives branded the NDP leader with the nickname “Sellout Singh” alleging that he wants to keep the Liberals in power until Feb. 2025, when he qualifies for his $2.2 million taxpayer-funded pension.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford joined the name-calling, saying Singh was “greedy” and that he’d “be floored” if Singh triggered an early election before qualifying for his pension.
While 47% of Canadians urged for an election to be called, the desired timing varied.
A fall election came out on top, with 38% of Canadians hoping for one. Pushing the election to Winter 2025, Spring 2025, and Summer 2025 was the desire of 9%, 13%, and 3% of Canadians, respectively. However, 37% of Canadians preferred that the election come Oct. 2025, when it is planned.
Despite Canadians not finding widespread agreement on the timing of the election, the vast majority do not trust Trudeau to lead the country without the support of the NDP.
65% of Canadians were not confident that Trudeau could continue successfully governing Canada without the support of the NDP. Only 25% remained confident, while 10% were unsure.
Also, irrespective of voting intentions, the majority of Canadians, 54%, think the Conservatives will win the next election. Second place isn’t the Liberals, but “I don’t know,” at 23%.
During a supply and confidence deal, an opposition party supports the governing party on key votes without sharing executive power or cabinet positions.
An election is triggered if the government loses a confidence vote in the House of Commons. Confidence votes can occur on key issues, such as budget bills or specific motions explicitly calling for confidence.
The majority threshold of seats in Canada is 170 out of 338 seats. The Liberals currently have 154 seats in parliament. While the NDP has 24 seats, the Bloc has 32, which could prop up the Liberals to surpass 170 votes in their favour, even without the NDP’s support.