NDP hold onto Elmwood–Transcona with byelection win

By Noah Jarvis

The NDP came out victorious in the Elmwood–Transcona byelection on Monday night, securing the left-wing stronghold once again for the party.

NDP candidate Leila Dance won the Winnipeg-area riding with 48.1% of the vote while Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds garnered 44%.

In the 2021 election, the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie won a remarkable 49.7% of the vote while Conservative candidate Rejeanne Caron only won 28.1%.

The Liberal party’s Ian MacIntyre placed in a distant third place, receiving 4.8% of the vote.

MP-elect Dance is a member of the Transcona community who has worked at several non-profit organizations, including as the executive director of Transcona Biz. 

Dance replaces NDP MP Daniel Blakie who represented the riding for the past nine years, and whose father represented the riding from 1988-2006. 

Dance addressed the victory in a statement alongside campaign volunteers.

“I want to thank all of the volunteers I couldn’t have done this without you, you have been here from the very beginning,” said Dance.

Despite the loss for Reynolds, the Conservatives significantly increased their voter share in the riding. In 2021, the Conservative candidate came second with only 28.45% of the vote.

The NDP has struggled to maintain or gain support in recent byelections since the 2021 general election. 

The 2022 byelection in Ontario’s Mississauga–Lakeshore riding saw the NDP’s vote share nearly halve from 9.8% in 2021 to 5%. 

In Manitoba’s two byelections in 2023, Portage–Lisgar’s byelection saw the NDP’s vote share drop from 13.4% in 2021 to 7.1% while their support in Winnipeg–South Centre dropped from 20.6% to 14.7%.

In Oxford’s 2023 byelection, the NDP’s support dropped from 18.3% to 10.4%, in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount the NDP’s support dropped from 19.2% to 13.8%, and in Calgary Heritage, they dropped from 17.4% to 14.2%.

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