Less than a month before British Columbia’s scheduled election, the BC Conservatives have pulled ahead of the incumbent provincial NDP party in another poll.
According to a Leger 360 poll shared with True North, B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad is slated to receive 45% of the vote in the coming election. Premier David Eby’s NDP currently has 43% support among decided voters.
The survey asked a statistically weighed sample of 1001 B.C. residents aged 18 years and older between Sept. 20 and Sept. 23 about their voting intentions for the upcoming provincial election on Oct. 19, 2024.
The sample was selected to represent the population of B.C. according to Canadian Census demographics. Though no margin of error can be associated with non-probability samples such as this, a probability sample of this size tends to have a margin of error of more or less than 3.1% 19 times out of 20.
The poll shows that the popularity of Rustad’s Conservatives has grown by 3% since Leger’s last survey on Sept. 16th, 2024. At the same time, the NDP lost a percentage point of support from decided voters.
Despite his party’s current poll lead, only 37% of B.C. residents approved of Rustad. In comparison, Eby received a 45% approval rating. 49% said Eby was the best fit to lead the province, and 38% said Rustad was.
Young BC residents aged 18-34 were more likely to support the BC Conservatives, with 46% saying they would and 43% reporting support for the BC NDP. Conversely, those aged 55 and older were more likely to support Eby, with 46%. 44% of decided voters in that age range said they would vote for Rustad’s Conservatives.
In Metro Vancouver, the NDP and Conservatives received nearly equal support, 44% and 45%, respectively. But Vancouver Island and the rest of BC told a different story. 54% of Vancouver Island residents said they would vote for Eby, while 52% of the rest of B.C. said they are voting for Rustad.
More than half, 54%, of participants said they believed B.C. was headed in the wrong direction, while over one-third, 38%, said things are going well for the province.
More than three-quarters of decided voters, 77%, said they would not likely switch their vote, while 15% said they were likely to. BC conservative voters were slightly more committed to their vote, with 57% saying they were “not likely at all” to switch, whereas 45% of NDP voters said the same.
According to the report, 85% of BC residents indicated they are likely to vote, while nearly two-thirds said they would “definitely” be hitting the polls.
At the end of August, the B.C. United Party announced a suspension of its campaign. Its leader, Kevin Falcon, endorsed the B.C. Conservatives, despite having criticisms about its candidates during his campaign. BC United has indicated that it will still run some candidates despite suspending its campaign.
Before suspending its campaign, BC United received 10% of the vote intention according to the Leger poll.
The same poll showed that voters care most about housing prices, affordability, inflation, rising interest rates, and healthcare. However, in a recent Save Our Streets poll, more than half of B.C. residents said they were concerned about crime and safety in the province.
Among all B.C. residents who were asked which party has the top plan to address the priority issues, Eby’s NDP and Rustad’s Conservatives are neck in neck for approval both getting 32% saying they have the best plan.
Of those who knew their opinion, 34.18% said the NDP had done a good job and should be re-elected. 24.05% said they have done a poor job but are still the best choice. And 41.77% said the government has done a poor job governing and either the Green Party or Conservatives should be elected.