With Saskatchewan’s provincial election on the horizon, pronoun policies implemented in schools will affect how some voters cast their ballot, according to a new poll conducted by Insightrix.
The Aug. 7 poll explored which party Saskatchewanians intend to vote for, what issues they find most important, and who they expect to win.
The poll asked respondents how broad issues would affect their vote. The areas that would impact voters’ ballots most were healthcare, inflation/rising costs, economy/jobs, taxes, and education, at 59%, 51%, 38%, 34%, and 33%, respectively.
Education had one of the largest contrasts between those who intended to vote for the Saskatchewan Party and those who intended to vote for the Saskatchewan NDP. 16% of those who intend to vote for the former placed education in their top three issues, compared to 52% of Sask. NDP voters.
The polling went on to ask voters their opinions on four more specific issues. Issues explored were the carbon tax, the teacher strike, SaskParty MLA’s behaviour in the Legislature, and school pronoun policy.
While 68% of Saskatchewanians said the pronoun policy had some or a lot of impact on their vote decision, the lowest of the four, 49% said it has a lot of impact, the second highest.
Voters saying that this would impact their vote “a lot” trailed only the issue of the provincial government withholding the carbon tax from SaskEnergy and SaskPower bills, which 54% of respondents said would impact their vote “a lot,” and a total of 81% saying it would impact their vote “a lot” or “some.”
Alberta and Saskatchewan previously joined forces to defend parental consent for pronoun changes at school.
The poll also revealed voters were divided on taxes. 51% of those intending to vote for the Saskatchewan Party placed taxes in their top three issues, compared with 17% of those who intend to vote for the Saskatchewan NDP.
The Saskatchewan Party has been the province’s governing party since 2007.
According to 338Canada, every poll showed the Saskatchewan Party with a large lead since 2019 (the furthest the data goes back) until Insightrix’s Feb. poll, which favoured the NDP by two points.
However, Lang McGilp, Research Director for Insightrix, told True North that the polling reflects the popular vote, which does not necessarily indicate how the ridings will play out.
“It appears like it’s going to be a much closer race at the popular vote level than we’ve seen in the previous elections as of late,” said McGilp.
While 85% of respondents were familiar with the leader of the Saskatchewan Party, Scott Moe, the same could only be said for 63% of the provincial NDP leader, Carla Beck.
The poll showed actual voting intent neck and neck, with 47% of respondents saying they’d vote for the Saskatchewan Party and 48% saying they’d vote for the Saskatchewan NDP. The remaining 5% said they’d vote for “another party.”
Despite the neck-and-neck race in voter intent, 52% of respondents said they’d think the SaskParty would win the next election, compared to only 18% who said the same of the Saskatchewan NDP. While only 1% said another party, 29% said they were not sure.
However, 54% of respondents said it was time to change the provincial government.
Saskatchewan’s provincial election will take place on Oct. 28, 2024.
The poll was conducted by Insightrix. An online panel of 860 randomly selected SaskWatch Research panel members participated in the study between July 23 and 26, 2024. Margins of error are not applicable for online research, but a probability sample would equate to a margin of error of 3.3%, 19 times out of 20.