A new poll shows support for the Saskatchewan NDP growing as it closes the gap between itself and the incumbent Saskatchewan Party ahead of the next provincial election in October.
According to the survey released by the Angus Reid Institute, Carla Beck’s NDP threatens Scott Moe’s fifth bid for a majority provincial government.
Half of the province, 49%, said they would support the incumbent Saskatchewan Party in the next election, while 42% said they would vote NDP. The seven-point lead represents the narrowest gap in four years since the 2020 election.
ARI conducted the survey online between Aug. 16 and 20, using a sample of 802 Canadian adults who are members of the online Angus Reid Forum. A sample of this size carries a margin of over or under three percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The survey found that in places other than the two largest cities in Saskatchewan, Moe’s party still enjoys the support of three in five voters, 57%, while the NDP has a better chance of being elected in the larger cities.
In Regina, Beck’s NDP received 58% support, while 36% said they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party.
In Saskatoon, the two parties are on closer footing. Half of Saskatoon said they would vote for the NDP, while 45% would support Moe.
While 47% said it wouldn’t change their likelihood of voting for the NDP, 28% said they would be more likely to vote for the provincial NDP if the Saskatchewan NDP broke ties with the federal NDP.
Out of those who reported having their opinions changed about either of the party leaders, voters were more likely to say their views have worsened for each than improved. 61% said their opinion of Moe hadn’t changed, but 37% said their views of the Premier had worsened.
Outside of the two major cities in Saskatchewan, one-third said their opinion of Beck had worsened. For those aged 18-34, one in five, 18%, said their opinion of Beck has improved, but more than one-third, 36% of those 55 and older, said their views of her had changed negatively.
The Saskatchewan Party enjoys more absolute certainty from its voters than the NDP.
Among voters who were decided or leaning towards the incumbent party, 62% said they were “absolutely certain” they would vote for Moe in the next election. Meanwhile, 48% of the decided or leaning voters said the same for the NDP.
The NDP polled stronger among younger voters. 58% of 18-34-year-olds said they would vote for NDP, while 31% would vote for the Saskatchewan Party. Meanwhile, 66% of voters aged 55 and up said they would vote for the current government again.
Young voters are also less likely, 50%, to say they would not change their mind before the next election than those older than 54, 63%.
75% of NDP supporters were likelier to say healthcare was a top priority, while most Saskatchewan Party voters, 65%, said inflation and the cost of living were the top issues.
More likely than not, Saskatchewan residents think the current government is floundering on key issues.
In healthcare, 67% reported that the government was doing a poor or very poor job. 66% said the government’s flopped on handling the cost of living and inflation. 57% reported that the government is failing in education, and 66% agreed that the government hasn’t been doing well regarding crime and safety.
Half said that they thought the government was doing well at handling the economy and the job market, while 45% said the current government was doing poorly in that area.
When it came to the current government dispute over the federal government’s carbon tax on home heating, a majority, 61%, of constituents said they support the provincial government in its dispute or think that it should go further.
Saskatchewan voters were more likely, 38%, to say the government needs to go further and stop remitting the carbon tax entirely than they were to say the government should continue as it is with a carbon tax exemption for home heating, 23%. Meanwhile, 27% said that the government should back down and remit the carbon tax.
Nearly half of rural Saskatchewan residents, 47%, said the government should go further and eliminate the carbon tax.
According to Elections Saskatchewan, the next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 28, 2024.