After the Liberal party’s devastating loss in the Toronto—St.Paul’s byelection, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is calling for another round of byelection to be held on Sept. 16.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced Sunday byelections for two of the three seat vacancies in the House of Commons for the ridings of Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba and LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec.
Trudeau did not yet announce a byelection in the British Columbia riding of Cloverdale–Langley City, which polling suggests the Conservatives would likely reclaim from the Liberals were an election held today.
The Elmwood—Transcona riding, in east Winnipeg, has been won by the NDP in every election since its creation with the exception of in 2011 election, when the Conservatives won it to help form their majority government.
The NDP has nominated Leila Dance, a member of the Transcona community who has worked at several non-profit organizations, most recently the executive director of Transcona Biz.
She hopes to keep the seat orange, replacing former NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who won it by over 21 points in 2021, claiming 50% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 28% and the Liberals’ 15%. Blaikie, who resigned from the seat earlier this year to take a job in Manitoba’s NDP government, was the son of the riding’s longtime MP, Bill Blaikie.
The Conservatives’ are running Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician and a member of the IBEW Local 2085 union representing electrical workers in Manitoba and Nunavut.
With the NDP’s reputation as the party of choice for unionized workers, the Conservatives’ nomination of a unionized blue collar worker signals a shift in the traditional voting coalitions.
“Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau’s costly coalition does not represent union workers like me,” said Reynolds upon claiming the Conservative nomination.
The Liberal party acclaimed Ian MacIntyre as its nominee for Elmwood—Transcona, just days before Trudeau called the riding’s byelection.
MacIntyre is a long-time teacher and union activist who led the Manitoba Teachers’ Society from 1998-1999.
A member of the LGBTQ community, MacIntyre ran for the unpopular Manitoba Liberal party in 2023, placing a distant third in the Kildonan – River East riding.
The LaSalle—Émard—Verdun riding will see the Liberals attempt to reclaim their hold over the Montreal riding held by their party since its creation in 2015 by former Trudeau cabinet minister David Lametti.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau handpicked Laura Palestini to become his party’s candidate in the riding after a nomination contest was already underway.
Many of the contestants who had organized campaigns to become the riding’s Liberal candidate said they were shocked the party had taken an undemocratic approach to choosing LaSalle—Émard—Verdun’s candidate.
As LaSalle’s city councillor on the Montreal city council, Palestini seeks to boost the Liberals’ chances in the riding, especially among the riding’s Italian-Canadian community, of which she’s a member.
The Bloc Québécois nominated social worker Isabel Dion.
While the Bloc Québécois lost to Liberal MP Lametti in the 2021 federal election, Dion stands a better chance to win the coming byelection to her predecessor, as the Liberals’ popularity has plummeted in the past year.
The NDP have nominated Craig Sauvé, an independent Montreal city councillor since 2013 and a longtime supporter of the federal NDP.
Sauvé is a former member of Montreal mayor Valérie Plante’s municipal party Project Montréal, but he left the party in 2021 following allegations of sexually assaulting a Montreal citizen in 2021. He denies the allegations.
The Conservative party is running Louis Ialenti, a law graduate from the University of Queensland and a co-owner of the Montreal bar The Cloakroom.
The Liberals are favoured to win in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, as the Grits won 43% of the vote compared to the Bloc Québécois’ 22%, the NDP’s 19%, and the Conservatives’ 8% in 2021.
However, 338Canada projects a much closer byelection than in 2021, as the Liberals are projected to win 30% of the vote while the NDP and Bloc Québécois are both projected to win 24%.