Three in ten uncommitted voters who might consider voting for the Liberals view Justin Trudeau as a barrier to their support. However, changing leadership is unlikely to impact the outcome of the next election beyond a few seats.
According to a survey by the Angus Reid Institute, a non-profit research organization, a change in leadership would not be enough to close the 21-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives if the election was held today.
The survey found that out of the 37% who said they were still considering what party they would vote for—out of the 3,082 random Canadians who were asked—31% who would consider voting Liberal said Trudeau was stopping them from supporting the party.
When the same sample was polled, none of the 12 candidates listed as potential replacements garnered much support from anyone who said they would “maybe consider” voting Liberal.
In most cases, a leadership change would result in a net loss of votes for the Liberal party.
Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, was the only potential replacement to garner support from all potential Liberal voters: Those who were decided and those who said they would “definitely” and “maybe” consider voting for the party.
Of those Canadians who said they would “definitely consider” voting Liberal, 14% said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if Carney was in charge. Only 5% of those who would “maybe consider” voting for the party said they would be more likely to if he was the leader. While 10% of those already committed to the party indicated support for the former bank governor.
Every other potential candidate made voters who might consider voting Liberal less likely to support the party except the current Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who, according to the survey, would convince no one who might consider it to support the party.
Among those who would definitely consider it, Freeland had about the same amount of support as Carney. However, for those who were already committed to voting Liberal, she got the most support, with 37% saying they were “more likely” to support the party.
The most common issue preventing undecided voters from supporting the Liberals was a lack of progress on important issues, such as inflation, healthcare and housing affordability, with 47% of those uncommitted voters citing it as an issue.
29% said the government’s deficit spending was to blame, and 11% said they were simply tired of Liberals being in charge.
The Liberal’s position, or lack thereof, on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, was also listed as an issue among prospective Liberal voters, with 15% citing the government’s stance as a barrier to counting on their support.
When looking at data from Conservative voters in the same survey, two-thirds, 65%, of the two in five, 42%, of Canadians who said they would support the Conservative party in the next election said they were “very committed.”
Only 38% of current Liberals voters said they were very committed, and 30% of the NDP said the same thing.
Regarding who was absolutely decided, 24% of participants said they supported the Conservatives. Liberals had a “support floor” of 7%, and 5% of those asked said they were committed to supporting the NDP.
When adding up the “very committed” and the undecided who would consider voting for each party, the NDP and Liberals were tied for a support ceiling of 44%. The Conservatives had the highest “support ceiling” of any party, with 55% potential voters.